Does EV have a bright future?

There has been so much talk over the last 6 years about electric vehicles (EV) technology on how it can save the world and improve, overall, the environment.

Whether that’s the case or not, remains to be seen. It’s too early to reach a conclusion since the technology is still in its infancy.

However, there are many evidences in favor and against it. For example, EV don’t need oil to travel around and is kind of neat that EV vehicles can go from 0mph to 60mph much faster than internal combustion engine. However, EV vehicles needs an abundance of rare earth materials for each vehicle which is more than any other internal combustion engine vehicles and those rare earth metals require mining and mining (which is a crucial industry for our modern society but largely ignored) has always been and will always be a controversial and difficult industry to be in because of all the major risks: regulation, activists (NIMBY, ECO GREEN), politicians could nationalize (theft) the mines and much more. The majority of the rare earth metal that are mined comes from China. The reason why is because extracting the ore and getting the necessary material is toxic and dangerous which is detrimental to the environment which negates the benefits of EV.

It’s a conundrum, unfortunately. Most countries don’t want to mine rare earth materials because of the health hazard and risk, yet need it, if they want to keep the net zero agenda which is not possible to achieve no matter what the world leaders do. So, China essentially monopolizes the rare earth materials because no one wants to do it and China is not concerned about the negate impact it does to the environment.

Another question comes up on how expensive EV really are? All companies that produce electronic vehicles get massive subsidies (taxpayer money) from the governments in order to keep the prices of the electric vehicles affordable. The problem is that while electric vehicles use less parts than internal combustion engine, over time if the battery gives out after reaching a certain mile over, the cost of the battery is expensive. It ranges from $11,000 to $20,000 to replace the battery. So, even when most EV are affordable, most people can’t afford to replace a battery. Imagine, if the EV companies don’t receive subsidy from the government, how much would those EV costs? My guess would be around $110,000 – $120,000.

So, if EV companies keep using the same business model which require selling more EV to customers, then the future is bleak without subsidies. As long as EV companies have subsidies, they will survive most obstacles and difficulties along the way, if they manage their business efficiently. The challenge will be when the subsidies are no longer guaranteed. What will become of the industry? No one knows but it’s definitely going to end up on the news.